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Leading Into the Fog: Pete Behrens on Navigating Uncertainty as a Leader
Introduction
Do you feel like you’re living in the fog? With all the uncertainty in the world, leaders can get lost in the maze of possibilities.
Today, we’ll find ideas to navigate that fog. Moreover, effective guidance can reduce leadership fog and uncertainty for your team.
Hello, everyone. This is Doug welcoming Pete Behrens and inviting him to share experiences from Into the Fog. Pete, welcome to the show.
Thanks, Doug. Appreciate the opportunity.
Absolutely. First, let’s start, if you will give us a little bit of fly over on your career journey and, you know, where where you have trod before. And what got you into this, this focal area?
Sure. You know, like you, I started as a practitioner in the workforce.
Meet the Guest: From Engineering to 15,000 Leaders
For me, it was engineering. And one of the things that I learned through that journey was the most interesting problems, I didn’t find to be technical. I found them to be human. And as I started to move from that engineer to manager to, you know, director to vice president, what I started to realize is, in fact, organizations are a lot like the things engineers work on.
You know, if you think about what is the job of an engineer, you take any system and try to optimize it — elevator, bank, a parking lot, computer database systems. And you look at what a leader does. They need to optimize a human organizational system, get the most output with the littlest, fewest inputs.
And so that to me became a very complex, fun, interesting problem to solve. And since that point, over the past 30 years or so, we’ve touched about 15,000 leaders globally helping them navigate this really complex journey.
The Complexity Trap: When Leaders Lean In Too Hard
Well, as I’ve spoken before on this show, and I talk about it often with my clients, you know, there is a complexity nature to what’s going on right now. And I’m old enough to observe that it’s actually spoken of in higher levels of complexity than ever before. And I think often what I see leaders doing is they lean into the complexity. They try to absorb the knowledge, to talk intelligently about all that complexity. But in the moment they lose the ability to be clear and direct with what they might be asking people to do.
So I am a big fan and champion of helping leaders thinking more simplistic terms when they are thinking about guiding and directing their teams. You know, try to get to the point. Be clear about it. And as we said in the Army, keep it simple.
Yeah. And, you know, when you start to think about that, you know, maybe I’ll push on your brand here a little bit. A lot of leaders want or believe leadership to be common sense. And, you know, I believe many leaders jump into it thinking it’s common sense and, and it’s something that they enter into often with little education or experience.
And yet what happens? We stumble. And I know you’ve been there. Much my book is my personal stumbles. And why is this? In fact, leadership is a bit counterintuitive. You know, we need to move when we don’t have all the answers, or we need to lay out a goal without even the means to get there or, you know, perhaps even invite people on this journey without even, maybe that internal confidence that I know we’re going to make it.
That, to me, isn’t so much common sense. It’s a bit counterintuitive. And so what I like to say is common sense and leadership isn’t so common. I would suggest it’s earned. And that to me is different. And I think your history, your journey — I would love to share a little bit of mine as we go through this. It had to be earned for me to feel like, oh, now it makes sense, right? Right.
Why Confidence Is Earned, Not Assumed
No, I — that I don’t count that as a pushback at all. I think that’s spot on. I think if I may break down what you said in terms of how I typically apply this in my own work. Number one, I do think we have to realize common sense is not all that common. And you’re absolutely right. Sometimes it only comes with the learning and talking about that confidence factor to move forward.
I love the idea that confidence only comes after action. You have to go step into it to gain that experience and realize, yeah, I got that. I made a good call. Or even if it doesn’t go well, you can look at it and say, all right, I see where I went wrong, I banked that, I’ll take that idea and count that differently. And even with that experience, guess what? Next time a challenge similar to it comes up, you’re going to have a confidence about where to go and what to do.
Yeah. Yeah. Think about what leadership is asking of us, right? We think of management as taking care of things we know. Leadership, to me, is more going someplace we’ve never been before. And that’s incredibly uncertain.
I see leaders being more trained for two other types of terrain. I often see the clear skies and the stormy weather. You know, the clear skies — we plan, we execute, we optimize our systems. And stormy weather — you know, the conflict and the quick decision making you need.
I describe the fog as someplace in between. It’s a place where there aren’t clear answers. And yet, as you say, we have to move anyways. It’s a place where there are multiple pros and cons of paths that we could take, each that offers different elusiveness and uncertainty. And yet we need to decide. And this is where I believe most leadership lives, and yet leaders are least trained for is that uncertainty and how to make decisions.
The Missing Training: That Middle “Fog” Zone
And I mean no disrespect to our training and development folks, but a lot of the programs are prescriptive for how to do the planning and budgeting in clear weather or how to manage a crisis. You know, you’ve got the storm and you’re absolutely right there. I’m not aware of any programs that are good at that middle fog area where it’s not exactly burning down, but you also at the same time, you don’t have a clear path forward that’s been laid out for you. In fact, again, I contend that a key role of leadership is defining that path forward and saying, hey, let’s go here.
Well, what you’re describing — you mentioned it earlier, right? That uncommon sense to move. Think about fog. Fog creates a blindness, so to speak, of — I know I want to get somewhere. I just don’t know how to get there. Right? I have a vision. I have a goal. But between me and that is uncertainty.
And yet what is the common sense? Well, the common sense says, well, let’s wait for the fog to clear. Let’s wait for clarity. Let’s plan, let’s try to figure this out. Yet when you think about it, if you were actually in the fog, what do you do? You proceed slowly, you move, and that begins to create clarity of right direction and wrong direction.
And as long as you’re not — you know, speed kills in the fog. But as long as you’re progressing, you’re learning and you’re getting more and more information, that’s clarity. But that feels, in a lot of ways, counterintuitive to leaders that I’ve got to make a movement without all the answers. That’s hard.
Flying on Instruments: A Pilot’s Analogy
Well, you know, as you say that, as you can see in my background, I’m a pilot. And in pilot training there are two steps. There’s visual training and instrument training. And to get your initial license, all you worry about is the visual training, which is literally if you can look out the window and see where you are, you’re okay.
But when you need to move to the instrument training, it is preparing you for flying into a fog or cloud cover or bad weather. You won’t be able to see those ground references and you have to rely on those instruments. And I’ve actually written a story about flying into some bad weather that was totally unanticipated, and having to make that shift of trusting what I could see outside the plane to relying only on what I had inside the plane to get me where I needed to go.
And it’s a different level of training. It’s a different level of experience to understand that even the concepts. It’s one thing to know the instruments and know what they are, but it’s another thing to put the story together of what they’re telling you as to what your next action needs to be.
And I think — you know, you’ve got very clear instrumentation. Altitude, speed. You know, I’m not a pilot, so on all the details there. But now take a leader in an organization. You know, okay, they have dashboards, project dashboards, green status. They have updates. But the data, while probably ten times as much, is more obtuse. It’s not as clear that we can take this reading off this dial and help us make a decision.
So yeah, I think that difference between the pilot and the reference point — yes. But then you think of a leader and so many more reference points, so much. How much do I trust this and what do I do with this? And it’s changing. And you know, AI is making that change even happen faster and faster every day, which, you know, how do I trust any of this data? So yeah, I think that leader’s context becomes a little bit more critical, just given the complexity of the system they’re operating in.
The Inner Fog: When the Windows Steam Up
Well, and since we began this discussion, what I’ve — the more you say, the more I have percolating in my mind the element of there’s a key importance, I think, and significance between what a leader might actually be reading outside, the external inputs that are available there — even if the initial input is, my God, all I see is fog. You know, that’s an input. But you also have the internal dynamics that kick in.
And the more you are inundated with information about your situation, there’s a challenge to not overcompensate or overthink or overreact internally, whether that’s emotional, psychological or whatever might get triggered. I would think that’s a big element of self-regulating for the leader to not panic when you go in the fog.
And to tie in the pilot analogy — you know, early pilots with not too many flight hours tend to panic when they’re not familiar with the situation they’ve just flown into. And in fact, to your point, there are stories of pilots flying into a cloud, not trusting their instruments, and then they end up coming out of the cloud upside down. And it is an object lesson in learning as a leader to self-governance so that you can be on point and prepared and available when everything else is relying on you.
What I call in the book, this is inner fog. We often think fog is outside of us. We often think fog is the project complexity, the competitive landscape, the market, right, the technology changes that are happening. At the same time, our inner fog — the blind spots we have, the ego that protects us from the feedback we need to hear — this is just as, or likely more, damaging than the external fog, because we believe we’re seeing clear.
I describe this like on a rainy day when the windows steam up on the inside. We can’t see out. This is happening in every one of us. We’re all human. We all have egos. We all have protection devices to keep us from, you know, falling apart. But these protection devices also obscure what’s really happening.
And for leaders, that concept of the emperor has no clothes is very real. The higher you get up in leadership. And so what we talk about here is while we’re dealing with this fog, we’ve got to start to recognize, is this something that I’m just not seeing, or is this truly something that isn’t there? And many of my stories in the book were indications where I thought the problem was outside of me, when in fact it was something inside that was keeping me from seeing what I needed to see.
Reframing the Circumstance
I think that’s so key. And I do a lot of my work with clients to try to lift the level of awareness of the significance of some of that. Not with the spirit of heaping more guilt on anybody, but rather kind of opening the lens and owning your feelings and ideas about things, and realize that just a simple reframe of the circumstance may give you a whole new view of what’s really going on, and you can step out of yourself and be more objective and potentially find that common sense answer that is more clear and more specific than you might have imagined.
I’ll share a quick story on that — contrasting story. When I was an early leader, I had a small team and we were developing software and it was all going great. You know, I felt great until one morning I had my lead engineer come in and say, Pete, we’d like you to join us for a meeting. And long story short, it quickly turned into what I realized was an intervention. They came at me and said, you know, we’re following you only because we have to.
And I was really blown away. Here I thought, you know, I’m a leader. And I was brought in to bring discipline and guidance to this team, which I did. But what I didn’t realize was how much negative influence I was having on my own people. I was blind to this.
The Story of Ryan: Removing the Authority Cape
Now, I learned a bit from this lesson, from this intervention, but that lesson didn’t come home until about five years later — usually when it’s too late. And I was now in a position of coach, and now I’m working with a leader who was very similar to my five-year-old self. And they were leading a young team, and they were bringing discipline and this new way of working with them. And they brought me in to help.
And as I was doing this, I was realizing this leader is like a Six Sigma black belt. Like, they know all this stuff. They’re like — why am I even here? And I started to become, you know, a lack of confidence myself. Finally I got the courage to ask him, and I said, Ryan, you could do all of this. Why did you bring me in to help you with this process?
And he said something that I never forget to this day. He said, Pete, if I had done this with my team, they’d do it because I said so. But because you’re with us, we’re doing it because it’s the right thing to do. And right there in that sentence, I was realizing what he did. He was removing his authority cape.
You know, he had the right to drive this team in whatever he wanted to do, but he wanted the team to be with him. He wanted to be one of the team. So he brought me in as kind of that catalyst so he could participate, not necessarily have to dictate.
And I look back at myself and I look at the decision I made as that leader and said, oh man, I just dictated. I just did this. Those are the types of things that I look at, a leadership that doesn’t feel intuitive. Wait a second. I’m experienced. I have the knowledge. I have — why I’m put in charge. I should be taking this lead. It feels weak to bring someone else in, but in fact, that was the strength that I was missing.
The Other Extreme: The “Hands-Off” Leader
Well, I’m glad you shared that, and thanks for sharing that. Let me add the story to the other end of that same spectrum. It’s my story. In the early chapters of my leadership, I approached my early team assignments with the idea that I didn’t want to be overbearing. I didn’t want to be —
Yes.
— too directive or prescriptive. I wanted to try to have a more democratic and collaborative environment. And when I started receiving feedback, the phrase that stuck with me — they called me a hands-off leader. And, you know, it shook me when I first got that feedback. And I said, wait a minute, is this a nice word for saying you don’t think I’m even here? You know, I’m an empty suit doing this? Is that what we’re talking about?
And it took — and I was a slow learner on that subject. I confess, I got that feedback two or three more times before I found the sweet spot of being the kind of leader I wanted to be, but at the same time providing the firm direction that people needed. You know, people want their leaders to guide them and direct. There’s a certain amount of give that they come naturally expecting. You know, I don’t want to be on a team that’s going to be perennial losers. I want to be on a winning team, and I need a leader to help me do that.
And so that too is a tough lesson. And in the spirit of talking in scales — highs and lows, blacks and whites, hots and colds — you the leader needs to calibrate where they are on that scale and see if it’s a proper setting for where they need to be.
Elusive Peaks: Living Between the Slippery Slopes
In the book, I call these elusive peaks. You’re describing a peak of, let’s say, confidence or power. I described one side of this peak where, okay, maybe I was overconfident. I used my authority too much. And what that turns into is arrogance and recklessness and, you know, naivete.
You’re describing the other side of this peak, which is, hey, I’m here to support you. I want to be that servant leader to lift you up. And what does that lead to? Soft, weak, slow, indecisive leadership where leaders are like — or people are like — do we even have a leader? And this elusive peak lives somewhere in between.
And I think many leaders, like common sense says, oh, I need confidence, I need courage, and these are all kind of in a peak that lives between slippery slopes on either side. And this is where the counterintuitiveness comes in. I’ve got to find that — you had to find it, I had to find it. And we lived on both sides of this peak, both trying to find that top.
But what we know is once you get there, you don’t stay. Things change. You slide back and forth and you start to realize, oh, it’s not a state. It’s something you’re constantly having as a leader. And this is where the experience, where it’s earned, you start to learn when you’re going down one side or the other. That’s the challenge. That’s what I find to be some of the most fascinating work with leaders — is working on those peaks. Right.
Building a Personal Leadership Framework
And I like the way you describe that. It is an element of much of what I coach, and even it’s addressed in my latest book study that is a culmination of eight years and over a thousand interviews with leaders. I challenged my clients to build a personal framework of the leader they believe they need to be or should be, want to be. And some have even named it the legacy story. You know, what do I want people saying about me when I’m gone? And that’s fine.
But I think what ties in about the peaks is there’s also an evergreen aspect to what I advocate, and that is if you’ve never done the work before to define that — so you’ve got a launch pad starting point. Once you get it, you need to regularly cycle through it and evaluate where you are on the landscape. You know, your scope may change, your title may change, your geography may change. A lot of things could change.
And as Marshall Goldsmith famously says, what got you here won’t get you there. And that indicates a need for process improvement, constant improvement of yourself as a leader. And the starting point of that is a willingness to dive deep and reevaluate. And, you know, maybe it’s a fresh 360 to get some data points from your constituents and see if it still reconciles properly with the leader you think you want to be.
Problems vs. Tensions: The Mindset Shift
I think this is where probably my most significant growth happened. Coming from a practitioner as an engineer solving problems to leadership. And most people come into leadership from a practitioner lens. That’s usually the path. And in a practitioner lens you have problems and you solve them.
A leader, I would say, on the other hand, mostly deals with tension. We have two choices. We have hands on, hands off. We have big picture, tactical. We have many of these, you know, power as we just described. Do I let go a little bit or do I be confident and state my assertion? These aren’t problems you can fix. These aren’t problems that even have a solution. They’re tensions that you have to manage.
And the learning that brought this to my attention — Tim Arnold has a book called Managing Healthy Tension — and started to distinguish for me the difference between problems we can solve and tensions we can’t. And you know, in this fog you’re dealing with these tensions.
And the challenge for leaders is when you’re in the mindset to fix, you’re constantly going to be beaten up. You’re constantly going to be behind. You’re constantly going to be stressed. When you can just shift the mindset to, oh, this will never go away, how do I manage it now? It starts to become accessible. And that, to me, was probably one of the most significant milestones in my journey in this leadership. And one thing I find over and over again with the leaders we work with.
Your Relationship With Fear
Yeah, I had a guest on my show that talked about that, and he titled his book The Mentally Strong Leader. And what he was saying was, for instance, let’s take fear as an element of leadership. You will perpetually be confronted with situations that initially create some level of fear. His argument was you don’t get rid of the fear. You don’t try to eliminate the fear. You have to determine your relationship with the fear.
And to use your word, the tension that it might create — you have to realize and recognize your own relationship with that so that you then can more accurately, perhaps, and more positively assess that without having that total shutdown, meltdown kind of moment.
Yeah, I described the opposite of that, which is courage. And courage isn’t the absence of fear. It’s the ability to move in spite of it. And, you know, often we look at, right, what comes first? You know, is it courage? Is it movement? Is it clarity?
I do believe courage is likely one of the things — especially given the change that’s happening in the world today and the speed that things are moving — courage is probably likely the starting point. Courage creates the ability to move despite fear, despite uncertainty. And that’s the thing that I think is hardest to come into as a leader, because we all fear failure. We all fear making the wrong choice.
But in fact, in the fog, when nothing is clear, the wrong choice is often the best choice. Because if we can learn to pause, to pivot — you know, all those little agile, iterative approaches that we know in military terms work in complex systems. That’s what’s needed today. Right.
Crisis vs. Fog: The Lesson of COVID
Indeed, we saw this during the COVID fog. Moreover, leaders worldwide faced such uncertainty that daily decisions were reversed the next day. This is leadership fog and uncertainty in action, with a ripple effect that eroded trust in leadership. The pattern has lasting effects on morale and implementation across organizations.
And, you know, I tend to say — no fault of their own. You know what? If you were in that seat — be careful what you judge, because what if you were in that seat being faced with making that decision, would you have done any better? But at the same time, it amplified that dynamic of so much uncertainty, so much fog that we were dealing with, that some were notably unwilling to make a decision. They wanted to wait it out and see if the fog would lift a little bit so they could get some more clarity. Others doggedly went into the fog and, in some cases, with very bad outcomes.
And — but I think this is the difference. I think there are two stages of that. There’s the crisis, then there’s the fog. And I think in crisis it was pretty clear what to do. Right? We stayed home. It’s like after 9/11, you know, Giuliani — crisis management, great.
But then what, months, a year later? Now you’re in the fog. You know, the fire already happened and now you’re dealing with the smoke, the burnout, everything else, the rebuild. And that’s a different kind of leadership. And that’s where, you know, you look back at Giuliani, where I think he failed in New York, and where you start to look at a lot of leaders — they get through the crisis. But then a lot of those — okay, now how do we return back to work? How do we now deal with this AI crisis that’s brewing and building? That, to me, is more of the fog that follows. That’s the harder part of the leadership cycle. Yeah.
Intention and Attention: The Bottom Line
So we’ve spent the bulk of our time here talking about the problem. Let’s talk about the solution. What’s the bottom line of your book? What do you recommend people think about and begin learning?
Yes. Thank you. First, let’s discuss what to avoid—those panic modes you described. Speeding up often leads us to crash faster. Stopping, like we know in the fog, is not a solution. It won’t move us toward progress. We must stay measured. We apply calm judgment.
However, in leadership fog and uncertainty, calm, deliberate choices outperform rushed moves. Then we identify those panic modes we often see and want to avoid. We focus on steady, deliberate steps that keep us moving forward. This approach reduces risk and builds confidence. Teams respond with clearer direction.
So what do we do? Number one, we’ve got to create some movement. We’ve got to start making some decisions and start creating some clarity through a cycle. Now, to me, leadership comes down to really two simple things. One is what I call intention and the other is attention.
A lot of leadership is setting an intention. In the fog, it doesn’t mean we don’t have goals. It just means the goals we set require more courage, require less certainty, require more vulnerability to accomplish them. So as a leader, we’ve got to start to get rid of our — you know, drop our cape, drop our pretense, or what I would say theater of, oh yes, I know all the answers. People see right through that. And so what we’ve got to start to do is say, I have a goal, but I don’t know how to get there, and I need your help.
This is a confidence with a vulnerability balance. That’s the intention. And then the second thing is you’ve got to pay attention. And this is where I believe a lot of leaders let go too much. You know, I think one of the books I loved was, you know, go to the balcony. Don’t — the helicopter’s too high, the ground floor is too low. You need some of that view. You need to be close enough to see what’s going on, to be connected. You’ve got to pay attention. So it’s these characteristics that we start to look at, is start to create more visibility in this fog.
Playing Offense and Defense: A Banking Story
You know, as you’re describing that, I’m reminded of a story from my early days in banking. Our bank leadership — and I was with this same organization for 20 years — banking weathers storms. You know, there’s booms and busts, and it happens in different sectors. And if you’re the banker, you know, you’re riding that roller coaster.
But our leadership had a very interesting and, I think, effective way of — the phrase that made me think about this was yours, that said, I know where we need to go, but I’m not sure how to get there. I need your help. And our leadership team was very proficient at working those kinds of problems, calling the right people to the table. And our chairman famously called it — you know, depending on the market, we’re either going to play offense or defense. But we need to have talent to do both.
And as the history of our organization mapped out, he clearly led the right calls in all of those things, because over a 16-year period of my 20 that I was there, we had successive earnings growth quarter by quarter. 64 quarters. If you want to think in terms of baseball and at bats, you know, we had —
A pretty good.
— good 64-game hitting string, you know. And over a 16-year period there were booms, there were busts, there were some simultaneously. And we would pivot from so-called playing offense or playing defense in our markets to be able to sustain our success as an organization. And, you know, if you’re a bank, people want to have confidence in what you’re doing, because people intuitively learn that, yeah, the markets are going to go up and down, but my bank better be stable and reliable for me, else I don’t know what I’m going to do. And our leaders had a good knack for figuring that out.
That’s a — yeah, it’s a great story. And we’ve seen stories. You know, you go back to like a Jack Welch era, you know, of GE and how he was able to control for a while, you know, certain results. And I believe there was a period in business where that was more possible. And I’m wondering if that environment exists today. You know, could you do another 64-quarter streak in today’s changing dynamic business environment? I’m uncertain about that.
You know, I do believe we’ve had two fundamental cultural shifts in the global workplace. COVID was the first that kind of changed the relationship between workers and leaders and the way we associate to work. And then AI is the second. And it’s changing the workplace every day. And it’s creating an environment that, you know, what used to be somewhat stable in some ways is wide open today. So yeah, it’s a great story. And at the same time, I question, could leaders do the same? Yeah.
Polarized Values and Coming Back to the Peak
Totally fair call out. And I think it’s all the more reason we — guys like you and I are called to service to help leaders ask themselves those questions so that there can be the proper level of thought engaged. And maybe it’s engaged with others, peer groups, industry peers, you know, kind of a collective gathering of ideas and information.
And one of the other complexities, to your point, that has emerged is people’s fundamental value systems are polarized now. You know, depending on who you talk to, they might be coming from a certain lens of looking at the world a very specific way. Next person looks at it in what you might argue would be 180 degrees opposite. And in large measure, we’ve lost the ability for those to come back to the peak. You need to use your peak idea to take both sides of that mountain and come to the peak to have a talk about what a good solution might be.
Yeah.
Closing Thoughts
Well, Pete, I think we’re about up on time. This has been great, my friend. Tell people the best way to get in touch with you.
Yeah, the easiest way would be to visit IntoTheFogBook.com. That’s a page on our website, and it can show not only my profile, our company Agile Leadership Journey that does the work with leaders, and about the book itself.
That’s great. Well, and as always, folks, we’re going to have that info in the show notes. So please feel free to drop down and check out Pete’s other information. And want to remind you, if you need to get ahold of me, go to my website DougThorpe.com. Got a lot of information there, and we’d love to hear from you. Give us some feedback on the show and go over to YouTube. Check out the video series there if you will. Channel by the same name, Leadership Powered by Common Sense. Would love to hear from you. For now, I think we’re pretty well wrapped up. We’re going to say goodbye. Go out there and make it a great day.
Meet Our Guest
Pete Behrens is a speaker, author, and coach who helps leaders navigate uncertainty when the path forward isn’t clear. An engineer by training, Pete spent the first half of his career solving technical problems before discovering that the most complex challenges aren’t technical at all—they’re human.
As a result, Pete serves as CEO of Agile Leadership Journey, guiding leaders and organizations through uncertainty, change, and growth. His work is grounded in a simple belief: leadership isn’t about having the right answers, but about the curiosity to ask better questions, the courage to make difficult choices, and the willingness to move forward without certainty.
Pete is the author of Into the Fog: Leadership Stories from the Edge of Uncertainty, a collection of honest, story-driven reflections on what leadership looks like when clarity is elusive. He also speaks internationally and hosts the Relearning Leadership podcast, blending practical insights, vulnerability, and real-world experience.
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